Bret Stephens, in the weekend’s Wall Street Journal (subscription required), analyzes the results of Operation “Cast Lead” in the wake of the recent Israeli ceasefire and troop withdrawal. Israel, he says, has learned a great deal from these past three weeks–but so has Hamas. And while Israel hopes for peace, it’s not clear that Hamas shares that feeling–and peace can’t come about in that environment.
An excerpt:
All wars eventually end. The question most Israelis are asking is whether this one has merely gone on vacation.
So why are the top echelons of Israel’s political and military establishment delighted by the war’s result? Long answer: They think that Israel has re-established a reputation for invincibility tarnished in the 2006 war with Hezbollah; that they bloodied and humiliated Hamas while taking few casualties; that they called overdue international attention to the tunnels Hamas uses to smuggle its arsenal; and, with the unilateral cease-fire, that they put the onus to end the violence squarely back on Hamas’s shoulders.
Except Hamas still have the ability to fire rockets. The stated key aim was to stop that ability. Yet in killing women and children and laying themselves open to charges of war crimes – with the PM taking the curious step of not naming any senior commanders to try and sidestep the chances of arrest on foreign soil – Israel has a very tarnished reputation. One seeped in charges of crimes against humanity and breaches of the Geneva Convention and of firing on the UN.
Nothing to do with Bush stepping down and the timing of the withdrawal nor the forthcoming election in Israel.
Success? Hardly.